The Auto Industry at a Crossroads

In the 1960s, 70s, and even 80s, it was widely predicted that by the turn of the century we all would be “driving” in flying cars that used renewable fuel and emitted only water. Of course, today we still rely on wheels, tires, and internal combustion engines, even as it appears the “water” theory is closer to reality than the demise of tires. Indeed, we are nearing a new era of the automobile, a crossroads from which a number of alternatives may emerge.

The industry has come a long way. Cars have become more fuel efficient, using half the fuel they did 30 years ago to go the same distance. What comes out of the tailpipe of a vehicle today – in terms of NOx, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons – is 99 percent cleaner than emissions in the early 1970s. With the introduction of such things as advanced electronic engine controls, catalysts, smart air bags and seat belts, and advanced simulation technology, today's vehicles are cleaner and safer than would have ever been imaginable 50 years ago.

But there are changes underway that show our present business model is unsustainable for the next 50 years. Worldwide vehicle sales are expected to double in 50 years, putting even more strain on our oil reserves and crowding our streets. We simply can't go on like this.

Our vehicles in the future will be even safer, and they must also be cleaner. In fact, our goal at Ford is to eliminate the motor vehicle from the environmental debate by designing them to have no impact on the environment. But the gasoline powered internal combustion engine is not going away any time soon. However, there are potential alternatives, such as hybrid electric and fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen internal combustion engines, and advanced clean diesel. No single global technology solution has yet emerged.

Our Escape Hybrid is now on sale, and in 2007 the Mercury Mariner Hybrid goes on sale, followed by the Ford Fusion hybrid sedan. The hybrid market is still emerging. The diesel engine has a bad reputation in United States. But because of its efficiency and performance, it is popular in Europe. At Ford, we are working on developing the cleanest diesel ever developed – meeting today's Partial Zero Emission Vehicle, or PZEV, standards.

As we move ahead, hydrogen power is the long-term course – eliminating tailpipe emissions, except for water. The fantasies of the 1960s were not so far off base. Production of hydrogen can be sustainable. And the production and use of hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe, would reduce our dependence on imported oil. Hydrogen powered internal combustion engines are a good bridge to fuel cells, which are still, by our estimation, a decade away in terms of mass retail sales. Hydrogen internal combustion engines produce near zero CO2, near zero hydrocarbons, up to a 25 percent increase in fuel efficiency versus gasoline, leverage existing manufacturing assets, and use familiar technology.

Fuel cells are the ultimate long-term solution. We have more than 50 fuel cell vehicles on the road. The Ford Focus FCV operates on a Ballard Mark 902 fuel cell stack, a regenerative braking system, and a 5000 psi hydrogen storage system. As part of a partnership with BP and the U.S. Department of Energy, we will put 30 additional Focus FCVs on the road this fall. By testing fuel cell vehicles in everyday conditions and applications, Ford is moving the industry toward commercialization.

We are indeed at a crossroads. It’s up to us to go in the right direction. We won’t see flying Mustangs anytime soon, but already today, you can see a Focus on the road emitting nothing but water from the tailpipe. The future is upon us.

Dr. Gerhard Schmidt is Vice President of Research and Advanced Engineering at Ford Motor Company (www.ford.com).