Contemplating the Auto Industry's "Next Big Thing"

To those who wonder whether hybrids are merely a stop-gap measure on our path to better environmental performance and energy security, the answer is a qualified "no." They are here to stay, at least until another technology - perhaps fuel cells - becomes such a dominant player on the auto scene that all other options no longer make sense. We are quite some time from that potential scenario.

This is an important conclusion. If hybrids were simply a quick answer to a long-term question, then investment might falter. Model offerings would be limited. Buyers would be more hesitant to step up to hybrid electric vehicle ownership. Everyone would constantly and breathlessly be awaiting the Next Big Thing.

Wake-up call: Hybrids are the Next Big Thing. It may be that we have only half-a-dozen full hybrid and two mild hybrid models on the market now, but that's going to change to 10 models, then 20, and even more soon enough. Already, we have the latest hybrid at showrooms as you're reading this - the Lexus 400h - with others in the pipeline like the Lexus GS 450h, Toyota Highlander, Nissan Altima, Ford Fusion, and Mercury Mariner.

Different directions are also being taken to explore new technologies and consumer interests, like diesel-electric hybrid vehicles and hydrogen hybrids. The Mercury Meta One diesel hybrid concept is one such example. Even as hybrids continue to expand their influence in the market, though, other approaches continue apace. What this underscores is that keeping an open mind is imperative as we continue on an evolutionary path to better vehicles and fuels, recognizing that at present there is no single powerplant technology or fuel that we can absolutely, positively count on to drive our future.

As Bill Ford Jr. points out, it really is difficult to predict which powerplant technology will end up the winner several decades down the road. This is why automakers and others are continuing work on alternative fuels of all types, as well as developing diverse technologies to extend the useful life of internal combustion and advanced diesel engines.

As we move forward, hybrid offerings are sure to grow exponentially. Fuel cell vehicles appear to hold tremendous promise. As Mr. Ford points out, it could be hydrogen internal combustion vehicles that bridge the gap between the two. Others, like Honda, believe it could be natural gas vehicles that provide the clean energy pathway to hydrogen. And let's not forget the wild card that battery electric vehicles represent if a battery breakthrough does come.

In the meantime, hybrids will become just another option at the new car showroom, alongside increasingly more sophisticated gasoline and diesel models. That's not a hazy, crystal ball look into the future, but rather an acknowledgement of the direction the auto industry has already taken and the growing acceptance of hybrid power by mainstream automotive buyers.